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Stimulation Plan Only Will Crisis Postpone
Author : Weihua
Submitted : 2011-12-05 16:36:57 Word Count : 534 Popularity: 0
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Statistical data from the current point of view, the United States since the second half of 2009 the economic recovery has been sluggish. Earlier this year, many people are talking about the V-shaped economic recovery possible. However, the extent of the economic imbalances facing the United States once again allows the risk of depression. So, after better than expected economic performance can only be described as "pseudo-recovery."
Stimulate the economy, driven by the government have increased, but the shortage of credit supply will remain. Systemic banking sector problems of credit supply growth will remain slow - even if banks are profitable.
U.S. household sector is still plagued by too much debt, so the credit needs of their dilemma more and more inadequate. 2008 to 2009, with the reduction in GDP, consumers cut spending, debt and GDP, no significant decline. However, when the economy is in the so-called "recovery", the debt GDP, continued to decline, indicating that credit demand is still sluggish.
Then how will it? Many are self-reinforcing economic cycle, so pre-crisis years of economic prosperity is not surprising. Asset prices are too high, inventory reduction, reduction of bank assets regardless of banks to lend less to the space are enlarged, cyclical increase in output, employment opportunities, increased business and consumer confidence higher.
First, the private sector (especially the household sector) debt is too high. Their consumption level has been unable to support the current level of debt. So they will save more, consume less. This means that the public sector must be a deficit, or export - import sector must be a surplus.
Fourth, because the United States subject to state and local government revenues have fallen, and can not print money, and now only the federal government to manage the massive deficit.
Fifth, this scale of deficit spending in the policy is not acceptable, signs of improvement when the economy will stop. Thus, the early signs of economic strength, the Fed will raise taxes or cut spending, which led to further economic depression - a high unemployment rate fell and so on. All used to deal with the financial crisis only to escape the stimulus to the economy after the crisis left can not make up an excuse for the trauma.
In addition, a large scale without government help, the driving force of economic recovery cycle is difficult to overcome such a huge deleveraging momentum. Therefore, significant growth can only hope that business investment in order to create enough employment. Not long ago, Obama issued for business investment tax incentives program may be helpful. However, I believe little effect, and some nights, especially when excess capacity is a foregone conclusion the current circumstances, there is little incentive to commercial enterprises to invest in?
Cyclical growth baton, whether from the government and enterprises to inventory delivered to the resumption of employment growth and consumer hands, not clear. But the fact is, the current employment situation is not how. U.S. third quarter GDP growth is likely less than 1%. Consumers, the U.S. economy is still in the phase of deleveraging, all over the layoffs, all stimulus package just postponed it.
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